AC ratio vs. core PCE inflation, 1995–2026

AC ratio: job-to-job (EE) rate from FRED FMPSA divided by the job-finding (UE) rate constructed from FRED LNS17100000 and UNEMPLOY; shown here as a trailing 3-month moving average.
Core PCE inflation: year-on-year % change in the core PCE price index, FRED PCEPILFE, shown here as a trailing 3-month moving average of the raw YoY series — see ac_vs_corepce.html for the HP-filtered cycle instead.
Data gap: Aug 2026 core PCE is not yet published; the AC ratio also breaks at Oct–Nov 2025 (BLS gross-flows data were not published during the government shutdown).